This episode felt jam packed. I left feeling a bit overwhelmed, but when I was breaking down my contenders I didn’t really find myself moving people around too much. It felt like a calm before the storm but also like we got to a couple of points the show has built up over the pre-merge: the muscly, athletic people form a cross-tribe alliance and Charity meets her downfall.

Thematically, Charity probably falls under the category of simply “attacked the game and just didn’t succeed.” We are told from the premiere that Charity is playing hard and in almost every single following episode, we are told that other players do not trust her. She is shown to be a schemer and someone who is eager to play Survivor as a sneaky, cutthroat game. Honor and integrity? Charity says, “no thanks, that’s not the game I signed up to play.” This episode she tries to push people to vote for Eva. That falls flat though and she does mention that taking a swing at Eva might be too aggressive, but ultimately I think that’s the right read. Either way, she doesn’t just sit on her laurels, she then tries to push people to vote for Sai. However, it doesn’t matter how hard she plays, she overestimates her social capital and ultimately goes home.

I haven’t seen every season of the New Era but the Mergatory seems to tend toward producing an easy, consensus boot. The vote of least resistance. This allows players to not necessarily show all their cards while getting themselves one step closer to the jury. However, the vote tonight was not unanimous, the majority of the votes were split between the two most likely candidates for a said consensus boot: Sai and Charity. We aren’t really given an explanation for how or why this happened considering that most castaways said that they would vote for either. Shot in the Dark insurance policy? Just in case Charity or Sai had an idol? They said, “I don’t care which one goes, let the chips fall where they may?” We’ll maybe find out next week. Either way I’ll be curious to see if Survivor 48 will be a season where honesty and integrity prevail or if that’s just all too naive.

Contenders

  • Kamilla - Overall, this episode didn’t give me the feeling that I should move and shake up my contenders too much. Ultimately my top six contenders are really just interchanging with each other. Kamilla had a pretty quiet episode this week, but I’m not ready to let her drop yet because previously this season she stated that she knows when to strike and when to pull back. This episode, Kamilla’s initial seed she planted regarding Charity bloomed and Charity was voted out. We already know that Kamilla didn’t like Charity, we don’t really need to see that again because everyone else did the work for her. Somehow people still seem unaware that Kamilla and Kyle are a tight duo. She gets left out of the “strong people” alliance, but due to her relationship with Kyle she’s in the know about what’s going on there. This is still a strong position for Kamilla and we know she’s smart. I need a bit more time to know whether her waxing and waning in visibility is a problem or not.

  • Eva - Eva jumps Joe for the first time since the premiere. Her partnership with Joe and her threat level are brought up multiple times throughout the episode making her a target. However, we see her acknowledge her weaknesses and take measures to try and protect herself. We actually see her seem to take up the role of the strategic engine between her and Joe. Eva is the one that proposes that she, Shauhin, and Joe pick up David and Kyle. Not bad. At least for this week. Otherwise we don’t really see her “attacking the game,” but I think overall it’s a pretty decent episode for Eva.

  • Joe - I am starting to feel more and more that Joe might not be able to win unless Eva gets taken out and he goes on a revenge arc. The Mergatory/Merge episodes could have been an opportunity for Joe to emerge as more of a strategic presence, but I didn’t feel like that happened. We don’t get any comment from him about the alliance made between him and the other members of the most recent Vula tribe. He wants to wave the banner of honor and integrity and even tells David that he doesn’t want to backstab even if it sends him home. Besides that we see him bond with David over whole milk on top of dopey music. To me, closing yourself off to strategic options and possibilities is not really a great look for our primary theme of “attacking the game.” Joe is basically saying he won’t do anything it takes to win. Perhaps his comment about not doing this “just for the pizzazz” is supposed to negate this, but I don’t know. What really worries me is that he said that by helping Eva through her episode after the last challenge, he actually pretty much feels like he’s already won and anything else is just icing on the cake. If Bhanu from Survivor 46 taught us anything, it’s that you don’t get to win one million hearts and one million dollars. Jokes aside, Joe may prove us wrong and have a more aggressive turn in gameplay soon, but there were red flags for me. This is not the first time he’s said things like this so far this season. He’s still high right now, but I’m ready to hand him a significant drop depending on how the next couple weeks go.

  • Kyle - Kyle had a good episode this week. We get a lot of strategic content from him, seeming to hit it off with Eva, and position himself and Kamilla in a strong position with one foot in and one foot out of the “strong people” alliance. He says it would be great to play with honor and integrity, but acknowledges that he’s already lied and that his and Kamilla’s successful strategic partnership is “founded on deception” He understands the game he signed up for though and doesn’t seem to have a problem with that. We see him saying that he feels solid with Joe and making connections with Eva. Besides that, Kyle wins the first individual immunity of the season. He’s on top! I feel like Kyle has always been in the mix for serious contenders, but he’s been slowly creeping his way up. I’m not ruling out a future slide for him, or the possibility that his erratic behavior might reappear. Good episode for Kyle right now though.

  • David - David is still among my top contenders, but I’m really not sure what to make of him right now. It feels like the show spent so much time in the pre-merge hitting us over the head wanting us to like three people: David, Eva, and Joe. People have been shedding tears over these three, okay! We even got the whole “I’m a jock with a brain” thing from him again this week, but he also comes in hot saying “I don’t want to be a shield… This year, we deserve it, man, enough of being lied to, manipulated, and used… Joe and I are no longer the meat shields of Survivor. We are getting all the strong people together and we are winning Survivor 48. From now on, if you’re lying, you’re manipulating, you’re a strategist, you’re a puzzle solver, you’re a social player, now you’re the target… Let’s have a season where we put someone on the podium who deserves to be there.” While I didn’t necessarily like this, I also didn’t really get the impression that this perspective was meant to be positive or negative. We also sort of see Jeff laugh in David’s face at Tribal Council when he says “This season has been one of honesty and integrity, which is different from most of the seasons I’ve seen and I think we’re about to find out where this season’s headed,” which I think is significant. While I agree that gamebots who practice challenges and puzzles prior to coming on the show are boring, I just feel like it’s a little weird that David is taking such big swings not just at the New Era, which Jeff loves, but at parts of the game that I think many people would agree are what make Survivor great. It’s Outwit, Outplay, and Outlast. Not just one or the other and it’s naive to think otherwise. But… then we also get a mention of David’s “million dollar smile” so the jury is still out on David for me.

Some Hope

  • Shauhin - Shauhin had a good strategic episode this week. He’s aware that he’s in a good spot but has enough awareness to implement a safeguard against a possible Civa 6 Strong by eliminating Charity over Sai. He is another person in the “strong people” alliance, along with Kyle, where the gears might be turning a little more than some of the others. However, we do see again that other players are saying that he’s sneaky. Kyle warns David that Shauhin will cut them when the time comes. It’s hard for me to tell whether this is good or bad for Shauhin. Shauhin is clearly a smart and capable player, but is he “attacking the game?” I can’t really say that he is, but there’s definitely still hope for him. We’ll see what happens.

  • Mary - Another relatively quiet episode for Mary. While she didn’t necessarily move the needle strategically, we get some of her thoughts about where she is in the game right now. Interestingly, she wants to jump ship from her old Vula members. Perhaps the olive branch between Sai and Mary is snapped and we won’t be seeing them work together. Hopefully we see what other relationships she’s making soon. I am still hoping that Mary becomes a bigger character post-merge, but I think if she isn’t brought more to the forefront soon the bit of hope she has to be a sleeper winner goes away.

Unlikely

  • Mitch - Two votes in a row Mitch is left out of the vote and this time his #1 is taken out. Not great for Mitch. After the previous Tribal Council, Mitch doesn’t really show any resolve to take the game by the horns. I feel like a lot of his content continues to be more narrative or a way to just give a pop of his personality. There’s a theory that he’s being shielded but I’m not so sure. I really like Mitch but he’s on the outside of this “strong people” alliance despite being a pretty strong person. I think he could actually win a couple of immunities, but his #1 was just taken out and even within the original Civa, he and Charity were at the bottom. He’s in a tough spot and has an uphill battle ahead of him. Nothing is impossible, but it feels unlikely.

Got Nothing For Ya

  • Star - Star’s star is rising! I still don’t think she has any chance of winning, but I was happy to see more of her personality this episode. This was a little more of what I was expecting from her after listening to her pre-game press. She honors her newfound truce with Eva by letting her know that Charity spilled about the idol and actually told her to ask for it back. She’s not in the “strong person” alliance despite also being a pretty strong person, but it doesn’t feel like she’s sticking out like a sore thumb in the way she did on the original Lagi. Star also has a very genuine moment encouraging Cedrek when he’s feeling disappointed about his (continuously) poor challenge performance. Good episode for Star!

  • Sai - This girl has nine lives. Is her time coming? It feels like it must be. How much longer can you survive when you’ve gone to Tribal Council so many times already and every time you do, you see your name? Who knows. Despite another heavily negative episode for Sai, it is not she for whom the bell tolls. Cedrek is frustrated with her for not understanding that he “is the reason she’s still here.” Even though Sai is excited to see Mary at Mergatory, Mary is not excited to see her and even throws Sai under the bus to Joe. She’s shown annoying other castaways after the Merge Feast talking about all the food she ate. Her name is written down at Tribal Council while she throws out a rogue vote. Not good for Sai. Even if someone decides that Sai is the perfect goat to bring to the end, I don’t feel like she can win. She’s annoying everyone, people don’t feel like they can work with her, and she is openly playing really hard. It’s a tough road ahead and I think it’s insurmountable. Sorry, Sai, got nothing for ya. Actually, I will give her the moment of the episode. Sai popping out of the brush and sprinting to snatch the Advantage out from under Charity’s nose was amazing.

  • Cedrek - I chose Cedrek this past week and felt a little bit sad (for my chances in the Elimination Pool) to see that Cedrek might really have some longevity in this game. However, longevity does not mean winner. I think that winning for Cedrek will come in the form of proving to himself that he can “play this game” and be out on the island with this group of people, and that even when he struggles he can pick himself back up and keep going. Star hyping him up after the challenge really solidified this for me. This kind of story could end at literally any time and he could probably get the same sentiment out of it. However, we continue to see people willing to work with Cedrek. People like this guy, so I think he sticks around for a bit even if it’s just to get picked off by the “strong people.”

  • Chrissy - I feel like this show hates Chrissy. I don’t know what else to say. It’s certainly a bummer, but yeah… They don’t want to show her, so there’s not a lot to go off of. She will never dig herself out of this category for me.

I look forward to the seal being broken on this season. This episode felt a little bit like table setting with a predictable, underwhelming boot. It seems like things might boil over in the next episode or the following. It looks like next week there are two immunity necklaces and two “teams” for the challenge, so it’s possible we’ll get a split tribal or a double elimination. Maybe just two people will be immune. I don’t know. I could see there being another round of conservative gameplay to get on the jury, and I could see people taking a swing at an opportunity if key duos are split up. Either way, I hope next episode is a little more exciting than this one. As for my pick… I don’t know. I only have my Contenders and Some Hope castaways left to choose from. I may have to go Mary but I’m open to considering Joe or David.

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