My Edgic journey begins here with Survivor 48! I made charts and contender lists for both episodes 1 and 2 but I’m a little bit behind on “attacking the game” here. In this post I’ll be talking about my impressions and takeaways from the first two episodes, sharing my charts and contender lists, and contemplating how this analysis may inform my Single Elimination Pool pick.
In the opening monologue Jeff waxes poetic about the key themes of the season. First he talks about how different all the players are and what they have in common is having “answered the call” of Survivor. More notably though, he discusses the worthiness of “attacking the game in pursuit of something amazing.” He admits that not everyone who plays hard will earn the title of Sole Survivor, but tells the castaways that it is better to have tried and failed than fail due to hesitation and fear. These appear to be the throughlines of this season so it’s likely that our winner will be someone who is shown to be attacking the game and perhaps working with people who are different than them. Even if they fail at times, they will not be held back by fear of failure.
We can see how these themes operate in the stories of our first two boots. First we have Stephanie who is portrayed as having a slow start to the game. She herself emphasized her efforts to “sit on her hands.” Juxtapose this with her adversary, Sai, who comes out on the beach swinging, forming an alliance of least resistance, finding and solving a Beware Advantage, and voting Stephanie out. Second is Kevin. He has a good premiere besides dislocating his shoulder. Despite his injury he is successful in earning the camp supplies, forming a connection with Mary, and aligning with the majority for the vote. He preemptively claims that he is the “King of Vula,” before his prompt downfall in the following episode trying too hard to swing for the fences and take out Sai. Kevin tries to make the big move to fully take control of the tribe but fails.
So we’ve been shown both sides of the coin. Where do I think the remaining castaways stand?
Contenders
Shauhin - Right now, Shauhin is at the top of my serious contenders. A downside for him at this time is that he does not appear to be in an obvious pair, which is something Jeff said in the pre-season would play a big part in Survivor 48. There is still a lot of time for that to develop though. He otherwise provides a mix of both narration and strategy, and feels like an important part of Lagi without seeming overexposed. This most recent episode we get a lot of his thought process on how to handle Star’s Beware Advantage clue, weighing options of varying levels of deviousness, while also clocking Thomas as a “scary” player for his suggestion to lose Star’s clue.
Joe - It feels very much like we are meant to root for Joe. He is the only person given emotional content in the string of videos showing the castaways learning that they’ll be on Survivor 48. His bond with Eva feels very human and he talks about wanting to take solid people that he trusts to the end. Additionally when Star tells him about the Beware Advantage, he intelligently pulls in Shauhin to show his California Girls that he’s not trying to pull any funny business. We also get a glimpse into his decision on whether he wants to tell Eva about Star’s Beware Advantage, which he eventually does, assuring her that he’ll take care of it. We may be getting more of an eventual fallen angel situation with Joe, but he still feels like a strong contender right now.
Eva - Eva had a very strong premiere. She proactively forms a pair with Joe by opening up about the strengths and weaknesses her Autism may bring her in the game. She is shown being productive and good at physical challenges. However, in the second episode we see some of her social struggles when she somewhat clumsily relegates Star to the bench for the next challenge. Additionally, she takes a passive role when Joe tells her that Star found the Beware Advantage and wants to take her out. I think she’s still a strong contender and there is plenty of time for her to take a more active role in her fate moving forward. Even though she is Star’s target, it feels a little far-fetched that Eva will be taken out at this point.
Thomas - I originally had Thomas a little higher after the first episode. Self-aware, strategic, forms a pair with Bianca. He falls a bit for me after the second episode though as he’s shown being kind of diabolical suggesting to Shauhin that he lose Star’s clue to the Beware Advantage puzzle. Shauhin describes him as “scary” after this interaction. While on an entertainment level, I am here for an evil gay taking charge and playing hard, I’m not sure if Thomas’s suggestion was to be taken as going a little too far. I think we’ll have to see how that plays out in reality, but for now Thomas falls a couple of rungs due to maybe getting a little too big for his britches or even being seen as a bit of a bully.
Kamilla - My only serious contender outside of the Lagi tribe for now. She is in a pair with Kyle within what appears to be the majority alliance on Civa, and she is shown to have strategic acumen that she has so far been able to carry out successfully in sowing distrust of Charity to solidify her alliance. While she wasn’t shown much in the most recent episode, and notably absent from the “humble traits” segment, she was still shown solving the puzzle to unlock the hidden immunity idol for Kyle, her #1 ally.
Some Hope
David - We get to hear a lot from David compared to a lot of the other Civa members. David tells us that he trusts Kyle but doesn’t trust Mitch. David tells us he has four nipples and that his favorite movie is Notting Hill. Civa very much feels like the “vibes tribe” of this season and none of these castaways have really had to draw their guns yet. We’ll see how David’s strategic development shakes out as the season goes on, but he does feel like a presence and a character who will be around for a bit at the very least.
Sai - If anyone is attacking this game right now, it is obviously Sai. However, she finds herself on this season’s disaster tribe and their numbers are quickly dwindling. Is playing hard and fast 100% of the time going to be a sustainable strategy? It feels like it can’t be, but she appears to be in a solid pair and has a good amount of control on Vula. From this tribe, she seems to have the best chance of going far in a meaningful way at this point.
Kyle - Kyle is shown “attacking the game” in multiple ways whether that be during the “Earn Your Tribe Supplies” challenge, finding the idol, or making a #1 out of Kamilla. However, he is also shown to be a little all over the place, literally going too hard and breaking the jug during “Earn Your Tribe Supplies.” The positive is that he recognizes his weaknesses, which is why he feels his alliance with Kamilla will be a good balance, and he now has possession of the Civa idol. He may be a little erratic to be our winner, but perhaps it will all come out in the wash at the end. Kyle definitely has potential.
Mitch - Mitch gets a lot of positive, emotional content, but otherwise leans a little bit more narrative than strategic. David tells us that Mitch is playing hard, which I’ll take at face value, but we aren’t really being shown that Mitch is playing hard. He’s in a pair with Charity, which is good thematically, but they’re outside of the majority alliance which is obviously not great. I really like Mitch and would love to see him climb the ranks. He has potential but we’ll have to see what happens as Civa is fleshed out a little more.
Mary - I absolutely love Mary and that bias is probably why she’s at the bottom of the “Some Hope” tier rather than somewhere in the “Unlikely” tier. She is clearly at the bottom and not shown as having any agency within her tribe being on the wrong side of the numbers and in opposition to Sai.
Unlikely
Justin - The upside for Justin is that he actually may be a decent player. The downside for Justin is that the show does not seem to want to emphasize that in any meaningful way. Justin is shown recognizing Sai as a threat. Justin is shown telling Cedrek to vote Kevin instead of Mary to bring about (what they think will be) a 2-1-1 against Kevin. What is not shown is the how or why from Justin’s point of view. I don’t think those confessionals would have been left on the cutting room floor if Justin were our winner. You never know, but it feels unlikely.
Charity - Interestingly, on Civa, players perceived to be “playing hard” or “attacking the game” such as Charity and Mitch, are at the bottom. We don’t hear much from Charity. Her only strategic content was perceived negatively by her tribe leading to the forming of a majority alliance against her. She was shown to be very supportive of Mitch and to have weird toes, but I’m not sure if that’s enough to get her to Final Tribal Council. If she and Mitch can make it to the merge perhaps we’re talking a different story, but right now she’s on the wrong side of the numbers and within the crosshairs of Civa’s majority alliance.
Cedrek - Cedrek is almost in my “Got Nothing For Ya” tier, but he appears to be in a pair with Sai, which I feel like insulates them both a bit for the rest of the pre-merge. Perhaps if they make it to the merge together there’s a chance for him to turn it around, but it feels very unlikely. Primarily because it feels like despite any sweetness about his desire to save Sai, he is otherwise portrayed to be a little bit lame, especially after the most recent challenge failure. Sorry Cedrek!
Got Nothing For Ya
Chrissy - I was excited about Chrissy in the pre-season because she seems a little different than other New Era players. It feels like this season has some people that are not as big of super fans, open to villainy, and fighting the gamebot allegations and Chrissy is one of them. However, despite getting a mat chat and a humble trait, she just feels a little too much like a background character, not just within her majority alliance, but on Civa as a whole. She currently has no pairing to speak of. We get very little from her and I can’t see her taking the title of Sole Survivor.
Star - Star is someone else I was looking forward to seeing after I went through her pre-season content. She seems to have a big personality and a fun sense of humor, but we don’t get a ton of that from her on the show. Star feels muted compared to her pre-season interviews and she is consistently shown to be on the outside of her tribe, without a pair, and with most of her tribemates openly talking about how she’s not playing well. Perhaps she makes it several rounds by virtue of Lagi not going to Tribal Council, but it’s hard to believe she could be this season’s winner.
Bianca - The show feels allergic to showing Bianca these first two episodes to the point where she’s nearly invisible. Her upside is that she’s in a pair with Thomas, but she’s basically just his sidekick. I cannot see Bianca winning this game.
I’m so excited that Survivor is back! So far I’m liking this season but it feels like it’s taking a little more time to really grow on me compared to Survivor 47. Perhaps it’s the reemergence of a disaster tribe. I definitely liked that the pre-merge in the previous season was a little bit more balanced in terms of challenge performance. I think this helped expose the audience to more characters and learn a little more about the true dynamics of each tribe earlier. I feel like it also took at least a handful of episodes for me to get the overwhelming feeling that the winner of Survivor 47 would be from Gata. After this premiere, I was already getting the overwhelming feeling that the winner of Survivor 48 will be from Lagi and so far nothing has shaken that for me. I may even go so far to say that I feel like the winner will be a man? I’m probably getting ahead of myself here. There’s still a lot of season left but that’s where I’m at!
Now how does my Edgic perspective inform my Single Elimination pick? I’m pretty new to these pools as well, but I think the optimal strategy is to leave your potential winner picks untouched while trying to pick castaways that you think will be eliminated soon but not next. That way you don’t end up running out of picks, and you hopefully have viable picks at the end. Trying to guess the boot order feels a little harder than evaluating castaways win equity based on the edit. However, it’s helpful to evaluate what the show is telling us about each player’s role in the overall and who’s story is the edit ultimately trying to tell week-to-week. So this time I’m choosing Chrissy. She doesn’t feel like someone who is super consequential to the story, and while she’s in the majority alliance on Civa, she feels like the most likely person to catch a stray if alliances within the tribe shift. So, Chirssy, I’m sorry but “got nothing for ya!”