DISCLAIMER: I know the identities of the two players in this cast that will be playing on Survivor 50. I know the identities of both players that were last minute alternates that were added to the cast of Survivor 49. I do not know anything else about the outcome or boot order or events of Survivor 49, but will be referring to the above information in my analysis. If you don’t want to know any of that information, turn back now!

The castaways of Survivor 49 have officially merged! Maybe if we’re lucky “Earn The Merge” is also officially dead. Hopefully the results of this episode can serve as proof that it’s not really necessary and the “Earn The Merge Feast” was a complete dud.

The pre-merge phase of this season has been fairly boring except for a couple of bright spots. The Shannon boot and the two tribe phase of the game were probably my highlights. We just got a better idea of who all of these players were at that point. Prior to that there was a classic New Era disaster tribe, and one tribe felt almost erased from the season. So not really my favorite, however, it leant itself to a bit of a confusing merge episode from an Edgic perspective. Here are my ratings and contender lists from the first seven episodes:

Throughout the entire pre-merge phase of the game it really felt like the only two castaways with a whiff of a chance at the title of Sole Survivor were Sophi and Savannah. However, they both had tough merge episodes, and for Savannah in particular, it looks like she may be taking a villain turn which would rule her out of winner contention.

However, frankly the players in the new majority and Bottoms Up alliance weren’t exactly given glowing merge episodes either. So what’s going on here? Honestly, I’m not really sure. I think at the end of the day, my contenders haven’t really changed, but the players I feel like have an outside chance have perhaps solidified themselves but they still have ground to cover if they’re going to catch up to Sophi and Savannah.

Thematically it seems we are working with

I think fairly clearly, most of the players who have been eliminated so far have been players that had sort of rested on their laurels and left it up to what they had done in days past rather than actively trying to ensure their security. Those who tried to go down swinging often hadn’t actually secured the trust they needed to pull off their move.

Based on these themes it’s probably safe to assume that whoever wins Survivor 49 is probably going to be playing hard, have the capability to make a move, even when it’s tough, and be an active participant in their fate. I’m not really sure if being “the monster” is supposed to be a good thing or bad thing here, but maybe I’ll just go with good for now because there isn’t a lot of evidence either which way at this point. So with that, I’d also say that the winner might be messy, ruthless, or even a bit villainous.

So how do the remaining castaways stack up?

Contenders

Sophi - Right now, Sophi has the strongest edit. She’s a game player, willing to cut her allies to move forward, but shown easily making genuine bonds with other castaways. We know a lot about her position in the tribe both from her own mouth and others’. Of the players in the now-minority, Sophi looked the best and may have been being protected more than Rizo and Savannah.

Savannah - Throughout the pre-merge I wondered if Savannah was being shown as a little too mean. “The monster” is a bit of an ambiguous theme at this point. However, in this episode I thought maybe she hit a point of no return on that front. To add insult to injury, it seems like her villain streak is going to continue per the NTOS. Other than that though, she embodies a lot of the themes of the season. She’s shown as complex, savvy, and cutthroat. When Savannah was introduced to us, she was immediately talking about winning. All very good for her. The villain turn might be too much for her to overcome though, and this episode wasn’t great for her or Rizo. Both are shown completely buying Jawan and Sage’s story about the Shannon vote out, and MC characterized her negatively and completely clocked her. This would tank her in many cases but everyone else is so far behind I’m not ready to disqualify her.

Some Hope

Rizo - I initially considered Rizo as a contender but dropped him at some point because he felt so over the top to me. He is constantly just dropping Gen Z slang and I’m not sure if that’s supposed to be his “character moment” or if it’s supposed to be annoying. That aside he has a sob story, he had a comeback kid arc during the Earn The Supplies challenge, he is shown to be strategic and complex when it matters. This episode wasn’t great for him and I suspect more of an epic crash out for him later this season than anything else, but at this point the competition is thin so there’s a little bit of hope for him.

Sage - Sage is kind of my true dark horse possible contender. She has embodied quite a few of the themes by building a new alliance when she felt on the outs of her original tribe, she’s made a big move and gone for broke by breaking completely away from OG Uli, and out of anyone on this season, she is maybe the only one who might be giving “monster.” In Episode 6, she did what she had to do to take out a dangerous player who may have trusted her, and evolved from a goofy underdog into a strategic player. Not bad. I think her “identifying character moments” all revolving around bodily functions is maybe not amazing, but who knows. Maybe it just is what it is.

MC - MC’s premiere was not great but her star has risen over the past seven episodes. She is consistently shown to be strategic with a good read on other players. I fear she’ll just get taken out for being a challenge threat, but if she can survive, her edit isn’t too bad!

Unlikely

Steven - For a couple of episodes, Steven seemed like the only person from the OG Hina tribe that we were supposed to care about. However, he gets shown to be paranoid and insecure on a few different occasions, and at the end of the day doesn’t really seem to be the on steering things. He’s given some complexity for sure, but I feel like he’s been given more emotional stakes to overcome than winner energy.

Jawan - Jawan just sort of feels like our fun narrator, but I suppose he could have a super outside chance. He may end up with a deep run considering the whole “horror movie” and “monster” analogies were his idea. Jawan also had pretty significant fire content so perhaps that’s foreshadowing for at least a Final Four finish. Winner though? I don’t think so. He’s a little too dopey, but hey. Maybe he’ll become the monster and win this thing. I doubt it though.

Alex - Alex has been quiet after OG Kele was disbanded, so his screen time and complexity may have more so been circumstantial than anything else. He’s already basically dropped a line saying that Survivor is the friends we made along the way, so I would be surprised if he was this season’s winner. There’s still a lot of game left so maybe he can turn it around, but it feels unlikely.

Got Nothing For Ya

Sophie - Outside of the past couple of episodes, unfortunately Sophie had left no impression on me and I often couldn’t remember anything she did in a single episode. One of her most prominent moments this season has been complaining about a reward. Even though I honestly agreed with her on that one, I don’t think it was meant to be a flattering look. She was named as a potential target for this vote until she won immunity for an unknown reason. It really just feels like she’s just there and when the show has to, they show her. Oh, also she’s from OG Hina and has been hit with a zero confessional episode already. Sorry, Sophie.

Kristina - Unfortunately, Kristina kind of repeatedly gets portrayed as if she’s out of her element. She was duped by Shannon, who most of the other characters we seemingly are supposed to like all clocked her. She’s scared of the outdoors. She almost passed out. She’s already had two episodes without a confessional (I think). I think a growth edit is the best Kristina can ask for, unfortunately.

That’s where I’m at so far with Survivor 49. I haven’t been as in the weeds with this season as Survivor 48, so this is all a bit more of a casual reading. Jeff says that the game is “bonkers” after the merge so… I’m waiting. 

My guess is that the winner is probably among Sophi, Savannah, and Rizo and one of them scraps their way to the crown. These players are given the most complexity and nuance before the merge when things are relatively straight forward. At the merge they end up on the wrong side of things and there isn’t much the editors can do to make them look any better. What happens from this point should hopefully be 

**Images from Survivor CBS